The news that Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump in the latest presidential polls highlights a new dynamic in American politics. The spotlight has traditionally been on Joe Biden as the Democratic front-runner, but Harris’s lead in the polls signals an interesting shift in voter perceptions. There are a few key takeaways from the poll results, and here’s my take on what might be driving them and what the long-term implications might be.
Factors Influencing Harris’ Lead
- Satisfaction or Dissatisfaction With Biden
In recent months, there has been debate among Democratic voters about whether Joe Biden should run again given his age and frequent health challenges. Harris, as Biden’s running mate, may be seen as a younger, progressive alternative to carry the party’s agenda if Biden decides not to pursue his candidacy. For some voters, Harris is a symbol of a fresher future for the Democratic Party. - Harris’ Reputation as a Symbol of Progress
Harris is a unique figure in American politics: she is the first woman, the first Black person, and the first South Asian person to serve as Vice President. This symbolism remains strong among many voters who want more diverse representation in the office of the presidency. Harris’ lead in this survey could indicate strong support among minority, progressive, and female voters who feel that representation is critical to American politics. - Trump Campaign Steeped in Controversy
Donald Trump, while still commanding a strong base of Republican voters, continues to face legal troubles and controversies. From allegations of election fraud to ongoing criminal cases, his image continues to be tarnished among independent and moderate voters. If polls show Harris ahead, it may be a reflection of growing distrust of Trump among voters who do not want to see the former president back in power.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris is embracing some of the Republican Party’s old standbys as her own as she gains ground on her GOP rival, former President Donald Trump, pollster Frank Luntz said Tuesday.
Harris “is taking pages out of the Republican playbook,” Luntz said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
The political strategist meant that as a compliment to the vice president.
He credited Harris for what he called her “important use of language,” pointing to her focus on small business issues and describing herself as a capitalist. He also noted her party’s emphasis on freedom during the Democratic National Convention.
“If you just listen to these general statements, she actually sounds like a moderate Republican,” Luntz said.
“So the challenge for the Trump campaign is to just stop with these incessant character attacks, and challenge her on the specific issues and her claims,” he said.
“Because, let me tell you something, going to The New York Times’ most recent poll, she is beginning to cut through,” he added.
That poll from The Times and Siena College, released Tuesday, found Harris leading Trump nationally for the first time since President Joe Biden dropped out of the election as the presumptive Democratic nominee in mid-July.
The poll of 3,385 likely voters surveyed from Sept. 29 to Sunday gave Harris a slight edge of 49% to 46% over Trump, within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
The prior Times/Siena poll, in mid-September, found the candidates tied at 47%.
The new poll indicated that Harris is making gains among older voters and Republicans.
And for the first time in the Times/Siena poll, more respondents identified Harris as the candidate representing change instead of Trump.
Luntz said he has seen similar shifts toward Harris in focus groups of undecided voters that he tracks.
He said those voters “moved away from Joe Biden in an extensive way” before the president quit the race.
But, “They move towards Kamala Harris after that first debate,” Luntz said, referring to her Sept. 10 showdown with Trump.
“And right now they’re asking: Who’s telling me the truth?”
Luntz also weighed in on Harris’ appearance on CBS News’ “60 Minutes,” which aired Monday night.
It “took a while,” but Harris is now “taking the tough interviews” and “being challenged,” he said.
Harris has been criticized for ducking unscripted public appearances and avoiding major media interviews since she took over the Democratic ticket.
But her “60 Minutes” interview flips that script, Luntz argued, because Trump backed out of a scheduled appearance on the same program and has refused to debate Harris again.
“It is Donald Trump who is ducking debates,” Luntz said. “She gets credit for that.”
Trump’s campaign claimed at first that negotiations with “60 Minutes” fell through because the show insisted on doing live fact-checking of Trump’s claims.
The campaign later insisted that Trump deserved, but never received, an apology from the show’s reporter Lesley Stahl for how she handled his prior appearance in 2020.
Luntz faulted Harris for not offering specifics in her “60 Minutes” interview on her claim that she would partially fund her economic plans by making sure the richest Americans “pay their fair share in taxes.”
What Can We Take Away From These Results?
- Challenges for Trump
For Donald Trump, these results are a sign that even in a likely race with Joe Biden, Harris could pose a serious threat. If Harris’ popularity continues to rise, it could disrupt Trump’s campaign strategy, especially if Trump has focused on attacking Biden. Attacks on Harris may be part of Trump’s campaign going forward, but these results suggest that Harris has the makings of a strong Republican. - Kamala Harris and Her Future Role
These results also strengthen Harris’ standing within the Democratic Party. While Harris has sometimes been criticized for her lack of visibility as vice president, these poll results could prompt the party to consider a bigger role for her in the upcoming general election, either as a presidential nominee if Biden does not run, or as a more high-profile running mate. These endorsements could also provide momentum for Harris to strengthen her position, either through more progressive platforms or by expanding support across party lines, especially among moderate voters who may not fully support Trump’s agenda.
- Potential Changes in Campaign Strategy
If these polls continue to show that Harris has a better chance than Biden against Trump, Democrats may rethink their campaign strategy. While Biden is still considered the front-runner, Harris could be a more viable candidate in the eyes of voters seeking a generational change in leadership. On the other hand, the Trump campaign may try to be more aggressive in targeting Harris if they see her as a potential threat. Trump is known for his sharp political attacks, and Harris will likely be a prime target if she continues to show a strong lead in the polls.
Conclusion: Kamala Harris’s Growing Power
Kamala Harris’s lead over Donald Trump in the latest presidential polls is an interesting development in American politics. It suggests that voters may be starting to view Harris as a more viable leader than Trump, and perhaps even Biden. These results suggest that Harris has a strong chance of playing a bigger role in the upcoming election, either as a presidential nominee or as a more prominent vice presidential candidate.
However, American politics is a dynamic field, and these results are only temporary trends that could change over time. If Harris wants to maintain her lead, she will need to continue to demonstrate strong leadership skills, reach out to a broader voter base and stand up to challenges from Trump and other Republican candidates.